Kit Kowalski and Edie Wyatt talk about the world of sex and gender from a gender-critical perspective, not just the culture war, but law, policy, activism, feminism and all the nonsense.
The Oz KPSS was an X handle saying 'they' as in they had lodged an FOI on M to F prison transfers in Victoria. Maybe one of the banned Lesbians?
The stats (and I count with fingers): If 99% of all 2016 SA offenders were men and if 97% of 2019 SA offenders were men then females offenders increased from 1% to 3% in 3 years. Assuming the 2% comprised mostly men then there were between about 60 and 100 or so offenders wrongly reported to be women. Depending on year and my memory may have gotten the years wrong. Also ABS tables are inconsistent over the years so often hard to get comparable numbers.
So yeah, a rough guess but it's not 1 or 2 more like 100 or more.
I'd be interested to know how the "99% figure gets calculated. It is worth noting that ABS records "most serious crime" charged. So if you rape and steal then they record rape, but it if you rape and murder they record murder. Either way, we don't really know the rates of rapists.
I've done a bit of analysis about this tonight, and there just isn't a clear trend either way with public data. I think you would need to do some real research into it. Something i would love to get stuck into if I had time.
Over the last decade or so, the number of male prisoners (most serious crime is SA) had climbed from 3k to 4.5k each year. For females the number has bounced up and down between 30 and 60.
Many males come into the prison system registered as female. They would be invisible to scrutiny.
If there are 1000 men incarcerated in year 1, and 990 in year 2 then the male population has changed by 1%. If there are 100 women incarcerated in year 1 and 110 in year 2 then the female population has changed by 10%. Are those 10% the 10 males from above? How would we know?
FGFW QLD has done the most / highest quality research on this for QLD only.
For want of time but the KPSS people seem to be on it in Oz. I understand there'll be some FOI data coming on male prison transfers. I do know of one offender that never went into a male prison and media never published that he was male, so the population of men in Women's prisons will still be under-represented.
2016 was the year the ABS revised the 1999 1285.0 Demographic variables:
1999: "Sex is a basic demographic variable used almost universally in statistical and administrative data collections relating to people."
2016: "Gender is part of a person’s personal and social identity. It refers to the way a person feels, presents and is recognised within the community. A person’s gender may be reflected in outward social markers, including their name, outward appearance, mannerisms and dress."
So the 2% shift (IIRC my guestimate last year was about 120- 150 additional sex offenders - 2020), would start showing from 2016/2017.
in Feb 2016 the ABS used the Nov 2015 update of the 2013 "Australian Government Guidelines on the Recognition of Sex and Gender" as the basis for the shift to recognising both Sex and Gender as distinct variables.
Now that the AHRC are claiming that an individual's "sex" can change, that obviously renders "sex" as a meaningless statistical variable. What's left? the unfalsifiable circular definition based on a "feeling": 'Gender is a feeling of gender'.
Which KPSS people? I only know of Fair Go For Women QLD who are doing real research into the area.
Re the 2% - one of the real problems with prison data is the numbers on the male side are an order of magnitude larger than on the female side. There are 40k male prisoners and 4k female. A 2% change on the male side translates to a 20% impact on the female side. I ran some numbers a couple of years ago, and found it is very hard to demonstrate the trends numerically.
The Oz KPSS was an X handle saying 'they' as in they had lodged an FOI on M to F prison transfers in Victoria. Maybe one of the banned Lesbians?
The stats (and I count with fingers): If 99% of all 2016 SA offenders were men and if 97% of 2019 SA offenders were men then females offenders increased from 1% to 3% in 3 years. Assuming the 2% comprised mostly men then there were between about 60 and 100 or so offenders wrongly reported to be women. Depending on year and my memory may have gotten the years wrong. Also ABS tables are inconsistent over the years so often hard to get comparable numbers.
So yeah, a rough guess but it's not 1 or 2 more like 100 or more.
I'd be interested to know how the "99% figure gets calculated. It is worth noting that ABS records "most serious crime" charged. So if you rape and steal then they record rape, but it if you rape and murder they record murder. Either way, we don't really know the rates of rapists.
I've done a bit of analysis about this tonight, and there just isn't a clear trend either way with public data. I think you would need to do some real research into it. Something i would love to get stuck into if I had time.
Over the last decade or so, the number of male prisoners (most serious crime is SA) had climbed from 3k to 4.5k each year. For females the number has bounced up and down between 30 and 60.
Many males come into the prison system registered as female. They would be invisible to scrutiny.
If there are 1000 men incarcerated in year 1, and 990 in year 2 then the male population has changed by 1%. If there are 100 women incarcerated in year 1 and 110 in year 2 then the female population has changed by 10%. Are those 10% the 10 males from above? How would we know?
FGFW QLD has done the most / highest quality research on this for QLD only.
For example: https://www.qhrc.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/38539/Sub.046-Fair-Go-for-Queensland-Women_Final.pdf
The Australian 97% male sex offender stat is bc 2/3 of the women perpetrators are men.
Before men were counted as women by the ABS, it was 99%
Very interesting. I wonder if you could show when these policies 'hit' using a time-series analysis.
For want of time but the KPSS people seem to be on it in Oz. I understand there'll be some FOI data coming on male prison transfers. I do know of one offender that never went into a male prison and media never published that he was male, so the population of men in Women's prisons will still be under-represented.
2016 was the year the ABS revised the 1999 1285.0 Demographic variables:
1999: "Sex is a basic demographic variable used almost universally in statistical and administrative data collections relating to people."
2016: "Gender is part of a person’s personal and social identity. It refers to the way a person feels, presents and is recognised within the community. A person’s gender may be reflected in outward social markers, including their name, outward appearance, mannerisms and dress."
So the 2% shift (IIRC my guestimate last year was about 120- 150 additional sex offenders - 2020), would start showing from 2016/2017.
in Feb 2016 the ABS used the Nov 2015 update of the 2013 "Australian Government Guidelines on the Recognition of Sex and Gender" as the basis for the shift to recognising both Sex and Gender as distinct variables.
Now that the AHRC are claiming that an individual's "sex" can change, that obviously renders "sex" as a meaningless statistical variable. What's left? the unfalsifiable circular definition based on a "feeling": 'Gender is a feeling of gender'.
Which KPSS people? I only know of Fair Go For Women QLD who are doing real research into the area.
Re the 2% - one of the real problems with prison data is the numbers on the male side are an order of magnitude larger than on the female side. There are 40k male prisoners and 4k female. A 2% change on the male side translates to a 20% impact on the female side. I ran some numbers a couple of years ago, and found it is very hard to demonstrate the trends numerically.